Rainfall vs. conflict

First seen at MR

Abstract

Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of
civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable
bias.We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic
growth in 41 African countries during 1981–99. Growth is strongly
negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five
percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one-half the
following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which
rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks
on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or
more ethnically diverse countries.